Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Michelle Obama Wins Cookie Recipe Contest

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October 3, 2012

Michelle Obama can celebrate a win now that her white and dark chocolate-chip cookies beat out Ann Romney's M&M cookies in Family Circle Magazine's Presidential Cookie Bake-Off. During the 2008 election, Cindy McCain's oatmeal butterscotch cookies won.


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It's Time To Pick A Peck Of Peppers

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October 3, 2012

Ripe sweet peppers are seasonal ambassadors, offering color, flavor, goodwill and diplomacy during the transition from summer to autumn cooking. Sweet peppers surge into ripeness in late summer and flourish into fall. Supplies wind down about the time trees let go of their leaves.

Now is the time to pick up a peck of them for what a single sad specimen will cost come January. When in season and plentiful, peppers are a bargain.

Beyond the ubiquitous bells, we can celebrate Corno di Toro, Marconi and other Italian frying peppers, plus pimento, piquillo, poblano, espellete, Cubanelle and cherry. They are crisp and aromatic when raw, silky and alluring when cooked.

The things that we call peppers are actually chilies, not peppers at all. The misnomer started with a persistent case of mistaken identity and wishful thinking by Spanish and Portuguese explorers who confused New World capsicums chili plants with the plants that produce peppercorns, one of the profitable spices they had hoped to discover during their travels. Chilies are berries because they are the seed pods of the plants, botanically speaking. That means chilies are a berry that we call peppers, and use as both vegetables and spices.

Botanists and culinary historians tell us that peppers are native to Central and South America, originating in the wild and domesticated by indigenous peoples. When trade ships began to crisscross the globe during the 16th century, they carried peppers that got planted on new shores. Cultivated varieties now grow in all but the coldest of climates. Compared with costly exotic spices, locally grown peppers quickly became an easy and low-cost way for people around the world to flavor their food.

Some peppers are hot, but the rest are not. Hot peppers contain varying levels of capsaicin, a colorless, odorless but unmistakable fiery compound. Mild and sweet peppers carry a recessive gene that keeps them from forming capsaicin. The only way to know a pepper is to taste it, but in general most sweet peppers are green while unripe and change into colors (usually red, orange, yellow or purple) and continue to sweeten as they mature. Sweet peppers tend to grow much larger than hot peppers. They also become more digestible as they ripen, which is why ripe peppers cause less gastrointestinal distress than green peppers.

Peppers are among the few foods that are enjoyed raw and cooked, fresh and dried, whole and ground. Although fire-breathing chili heads might disagree, most cooks and eaters prefer preserved hot peppers and fresh sweet peppers. Whether dried, smoked, pulverized or pickled, hot peppers can retain their pungency for months. Fresh peppers are a more fleeting treat.

This is prime time for vibrant sweet peppers. Almost any shopper can find at least one. Even pedestrian grocery store peppers often taste better and cost less this time of year, while they are grown and picked more locally. Explore local farmers markets and ethnic markets to discover more intriguing peppers, including obscure but treasured heirloom varieties. Beyond the ubiquitous bells, we can celebrate Corno di Toro, Marconi and other Italian frying peppers, plus pimento, piquillo, poblano, espellete, Cubanelle and cherry. They are crisp and aromatic when raw, silky and alluring when cooked.

Pepper season is sailing by; don't miss the boat.


How To Roast Ripe Peppers

No vegetable benefits from roasting more than ripe sweet peppers. Roasting intensifies their natural sweetness and removes their thin, tough skins. It's easy to do. You can roast a single pepper or a whole batch at once. The only requirement is a source of direct high heat. That can be a broiler or the open flame of a gas burner on the stove or grill.

The heat caramelizes the sugars in the peppers, so they must be ripe enough to have developed sugars. So don't try this with an unripe green pepper, because all you will get is an acrid, burned green pepper. (This caveat does not apply to green chilies because the point of roasting them is to char the skins, not sweeten the flesh.)

Leave the peppers whole and do not oil them. If using a broiler, arrange the peppers on a foil-lined baking sheet. If using a gas burner or grill (either gas or charcoal), place them directly on the grate as close to the heat source as possible. (Turn on the vent if doing this indoors.) Roast the peppers until they are blistered and blackened all over, turning as needed with tongs. Don't stop until they look ruined. Transfer the charred peppers into a large bowl and cover with plastic wrap, or enclose them in a zip-top plastic bag. Let the peppers rest until they are cool enough to handle. The captured steam will finish cooking them. Gently pull out the stem and core of each pepper; most of the seeds will come out still attached to the core. Gently rub or peel off the blackened skin. It's fine if a few charred bits stay stuck to the flesh. Do not rinse the peppers, or you will wash away their great flavor and waste your efforts.

Use the peppers at once, or cover and refrigerate up to three days. You also can freeze the peppers in an airtight container for up to three months. Frozen peppers retain their flavor, but they soften, so they are best used in cooked dishes.


Roasted Fingerling Potato Salad With Lemon-Basil Vinaigrette

This potato salad is full of unexpected twists in texture and seasoning. Roasted potatoes are dressed with vinaigrette that is tangy with lemon and bright with basil. It contains not a speck of mayonnaise, making this a great salad for picnics, tailgate parties and potlucks. The beauty of this golden salad laced with ribbons of red pepper and green basil will draw people to the platter. The recipe is from The New Southern Garden Cookbook: Enjoying the Best from Homegrown Gardens, Farmers' Markets, Roadside Stands and CSA Farm Boxes by Sheri Castle (University of North Carolina Press 2011).

Roasted Fingerling Potato Salad With Lemon-Basil Vinaigrette

Makes 6 to 8 servings

Salad

2 pounds fingerling potatoes or other waxy variety

2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil

2 large roasted red ripe peppers, cut into thin strips (about 1 1/2 cups)

1/2 cup finely chopped shallots

1/4 cup lightly packed basil leaves, cut into thin ribbons

3/4 cup coarsely grated Parmesan, Manchego or other hard grating cheese

Lemon-Basil Vinaigrette

Zest of 1 lemon (about 2 teaspoons)

Juice of 2 lemons (about 1/3 cup)

4 garlic cloves, finely chopped

1/2 cup lightly packed basil leaves

1 tablespoon whole-grain Dijon mustard

1/2 cup extra-virgin olive oil

2 teaspoons kosher salt, or to taste

1/2 teaspoon freshly ground black pepper, or to taste

Preheat oven to 400 degrees.

Line rimmed baking sheet with parchment paper or aluminum foil.

Cut potatoes in half lengthwise. Transfer to baking sheet, drizzle with oil, toss to coat and spread in a single layer. For extra-crispy edges, arrange cut-side down. Roast until tender when pierced with the tip of a knife, 20 to 40 minutes, depending on the size of the potatoes. Do not overcook or they will fall apart in the salad.

Meanwhile, make the vinaigrette.

Pulse the lemon zest, lemon juice, garlic, basil and mustard in a blender until chopped. With the blender running, add oil in slow, steady stream. Season with salt and pepper.

Transfer hot potatoes into a shallow serving bowl or platter. Toss gently with vinaigrette. Let cool to room temperature, tossing occasionally.

Gently mix in roasted peppers, shallots, basil and cheese. Season generously with salt and pepper.

Serve at room temperature.


Skillet-Scorched Shishitos

Skillet-Scorched Shishitos

Shishitos hail from Japan and are a new darling of the pepper-eating world, showing up in farmers markets and well-stocked grocery stores all over the place. Despite being small and green, they have only a whisper of heat, except for the occasional random one that is hot enough to make you blink a little. Eating through a batch of shishitos is like a game of Russian roulette because you never know whether the next one will be the one that gets you. To up the ante, mix in a few of the more spirited Spanish padrn chilies, which look similar to shishitos. The result is a mix of delicious, salty, addictive treats that will either melt in your mouth or melt away a little of your tongue.

Makes 4 servings

2 tablespoons vegetable oil

3 cups whole shishito and/or padrn chilies

Flaky sea salt, such as Maldon or fleur du sel

Heat oil in large cast-iron skillet. When oil shimmers, add chilies and toss to coat. Cook, tossing occasionally, until chilies begin to blister and char in spots, about 5 minutes.

Sprinkle liberally with salt and serve immediately.


Newfangled Stuffed Peppers

Any community cookbook and most family recipe boxes contain at least one recipe for stuffed peppers, usually green bells filled with a ground meat mixture and topped with a little tomato sauce. This recipe takes a new tack. Juicy and tender roasted peppers are stuffed with a tuna and bread crumb filling studded with currants, capers, fresh herbs and a hint of orange. Serve as an entree or as an appetizer atop grilled bread or salad greens. They are good warm or at room temperature, making them ideal for entertaining or make-ahead meals.

New-Fangled Stuffed Peppers

Beyond colorful bells, consider long, meaty Italian frying peppers, such as Cubanelle, Marconi or Corno di Toro. Large pimentos make charming little bowls, particularly the squat, pumpkin-shaped variety often called cheese or sheepnose pimentos. Premium oil-packed tuna is key to the filling because it is silky and deeply flavored, not bland and watery. For a vegetarian version of this dish, replace the tuna with cooked white beans and extra olive oil.

You can fill the peppers up to 1 day ahead. Store covered and refrigerated. Increase the baking time by about 5 minutes. The recipe is from The New Southern Garden Cookbook: Enjoying the Best from Homegrown Gardens, Farmers' Markets, Roadside Stands and CSA Farm Boxes by Sheri Castle (University of North Carolina Press 2011).

Makes 4 entree or 8 appetizer servings

8 large ripe, red, sweet peppers, roasted whole and cooled

8 ounces tuna packed in olive oil, preferably fillets in a jar

2 tablespoons currants, soaked in hot water for 10 minutes then drained

1 cup fresh bread crumbs from crusty bread

1/4 cup pitted ripe black olives, such as kalamatas, chopped

3 tablespoons pine nuts, toasted

3 tablespoons chopped basil

3 tablespoons chopped flat-leaf parsley

2 tablespoons capers, drained

2 garlic cloves, finely chopped

1 teaspoon fennel seed

2 teaspoons finely grated orange zest

1 tablespoon fresh orange juice

1/2 teaspoon kosher salt, or to taste

1/4 teaspoon ground black pepper, or to taste

2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, as needed

1/4 cup coarsely grated Asiago, Pecorino, or Parmesan cheese

Preheat oven to 350 degrees.

If peppers are long, make a slit down one side of each pepper and open like a book. Remove stem and seeds. Arrange peppers in a single layer on a work surface. If peppers are more round, remove stems and seeds but leave intact like a little bowl.

Drain tuna in a mesh sieve set over a small bowl, reserving oil. Transfer tuna into a large bowl and break fillets into large bite-size pieces. Gently stir in 3 tablespoons of reserved oil, currants, bread crumbs, olives, pine nuts, basil, parsley, capers, garlic, fennel seed, orange zest and orange juice in a medium mixing bowl. Season with salt and pepper.

Divide filling among the peppers. Fold peppers closed, roll up to enclose filling, or leave open at the top, depending on their shape.

Place peppers in a 9-by-13-inch glass or ceramic baking dish. Drizzle with remaining 3 tablespoons of tuna oil. If there is not enough tuna oil, make up the difference with olive oil. Sprinkle with cheese and bake until cheese melts and filling is warm, about 15 minutes. Serve warm or let cool to room temperature.


Freezer Slaw

This colorful, creative slaw is a real keeper. Like most slaws, it tastes best when served within a couple of days after it's made, but it also holds in the freezer up to 3 months. In the freezer. Honest. When packed into airtight containers, it retains all its flavor and much of its crunch, like magic. Because it contains an impressive variety of late summer and early fall vegetables, this recipe is a great way to use up a bounty of produce before the first killing frost.

Try this slaw on hot dogs, grilled brats or barbecue sandwiches, or as an accompaniment to simple legumes such as a pot of beans or lentils. The recipe is from The New Southern Garden Cookbook: Enjoying the Best from Homegrown Gardens, Farmers' Markets, Roadside Stands and CSA Farm Boxes by Sheri Castle (University of North Carolina Press 2011).

Freezer Slaw

Makes 6 to 8 servings

1 1/4 pounds green cabbage, cored and finely chopped

1 pound sweet peppers, stemmed, cored and finely chopped

8 ounces yellow onion, finely chopped

8 ounces green tomatoes, cored and finely chopped

1 tablespoon kosher salt

3/4 cup sugar

3/4 cup cider vinegar

1 teaspoon whole yellow mustard seed

1/2 teaspoon dry mustard

1/4 teaspoon ground turmeric

1/2 teaspoon celery seed

1/4 teaspoon ground ginger

You can chop the vegetables on a box grater or in the bowl of a food processor fitted with the metal blade. (The processor's shredding disc leaves the pieces too long and stringy.) Do not fill the bowl more than halfway, and use short pulses so that the vegetables bounce up and down over the blade instead of grinding into mush.

Toss together cabbage, peppers, onion, tomatoes and salt in a colander set inside a large bowl. Cover and set aside at room temperature for 1 hour or refrigerate overnight. Discard the accumulated liquid. Transfer the vegetables into a large bowl.

Bring the sugar, vinegar, mustard seed, dry mustard, turmeric, celery seed and ginger to a boil in a small saucepan over high heat, stirring until the sugar dissolves. Boil for 1 minute. Remove from heat and cool to room temperature. Pour over vegetables and mix well.

Cover and refrigerate until chilled, at least 4 hours and up to 3 days. For longer storage, pack slaw into airtight containers and freeze up to 3 months. Thaw before serving.


Roasted Pepper And Pear Soup

Beautiful and aromatic, this soup is like a bowl of fragrant liquid rubies. It's ideal for the transitional season when summer crops are slowing down and the early fall crops are ramping up. The weather is usually mixed as well, with hot days downshifting into cool evenings when a little warm soup would taste good. The pears play well with the natural fruity sweetness of the roasted peppers. Likewise, the smoked paprika boosts the smokiness from the roasting, especially if the peppers are charred on a grill. An elegant way to serve this soup is to ladle it into a shallow soup plate and float a thin slice of a bloomy, rich, aged goat cheese in the center, instead of the creme fraiche and chips. The recipe is from The New Southern Garden Cookbook: Enjoying the Best from Homegrown Gardens, Farmers' Markets, Roadside Stands and CSA Farm Boxes by Sheri Castle (University of North Carolina Press 2011).

Roasted Pepper And Pear Soup

Makes about 2 quarts

2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil

1 1/2 cups peeled and chopped carrots

3/4 cup chopped shallots or leeks

2 garlic cloves, finely chopped

4 cups chicken stock

2 large, very ripe pears, cored, peeled and chopped (about 3 cups)

8 large, sweet red peppers, roasted, peeled and seeded (about 8 cups)

1 teaspoon kosher salt, plus more to taste

1/2 cup pear nectar, plus more as needed

1 teaspoon smoked paprika (pimenton), or to taste

1/4 teaspoon cayenne pepper, or to taste

Creme fraiche, for garnish

Root vegetable chips, for garnish

Heat oil in large, heavy pot over medium heat. Add carrots, shallots and a pinch of salt. Cook, stirring occasionally, until the vegetables begin to soften, but not brown, about 8 minutes. Add garlic and cook for 1 minute.

Add stock, pears, roasted peppers and salt. Bring soup just to a boil; reduce the heat and let the soup simmer until the vegetables are tender, about 10 minutes.

Puree in a blender (working in batches to not fill the blender more than half full) and return to pot, or puree the soup directly in the pot with an immersion blender. Stir in pear nectar and season the soup with the smoked paprika and cayenne. If the soup is too thick, thin with more nectar.

Cool to room temperature, cover and refrigerate at least overnight and up to 3 days.

Return to room temperature or reheat gently over medium heat, stirring often. The subtle flavors and aromas are best when the soup is not piping hot. Check the seasoning.

To serve, ladle into shallow bowls and top with a dollop of creme fraiche and a few chips.


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In Washington State, Picker Shortage Threatens Apple Boom

Maregarita Magana, 34, snips off the stem of an early Fuji apple in Chiawana Orchards near Pasco, Wash. State farmers worry that many apples might be left on the trees this year.

Maregarita Magana, 34, snips off the stem of an early Fuji apple in Chiawana Orchards near Pasco, Wash. State farmers worry that many apples might be left on the trees this year.

Maregarita Magana, 34, snips off the stem of an early Fuji apple in Chiawana Orchards near Pasco, Wash. State farmers worry that many apples might be left on the trees this year.

In western Michigan, there aren't enough apples to pick, after bad weather decimated 85 to 90 percent of its crop. But in Washington state, they have the opposite problem there's an abundance of apples, but not enough pickers.

This should be the happiest, busiest time of year in Washington apple orchards. But now just as the peak of apple harvest is coming on Broetje Orchards manager Roger Bairstow is wincing.

"There are quite a few of us that aren't sleeping through the night," he says.

Right now, Broetje has nearly 2,000 workers. They're out on tall aluminum ladders plucking dusty red and green apples from the trees. Music plays from the smartphones of workers and Gala apples thud gently into the waiting bins.

Amilia Magno, 23, of Pasco, Wash., carries a heavy load of buckeye gala apples in Broetje Orchards near Prescott, Wash.

Amilia Magno, 23, of Pasco, Wash., carries a heavy load of buckeye gala apples in Broetje Orchards near Prescott, Wash.

Amilia Magno, 23, of Pasco, Wash., carries a heavy load of buckeye gala apples in Broetje Orchards near Prescott, Wash.

But Bairstow says the orchard still needs at least 200 more experienced pickers. And apples have a limited branch life.

"So the longer an apple stays on the tree, the worse the condition gets and the less likelihood of getting a good price on the market," Bairstow says. "So at some point, it's not even worth picking."

If the fruits are left on the tree too long they can only be used for apple sauce or juice, which is less profitable than whole fruit.

The labor shortage comes as Washington state's apples are worth more. That's because competitors like New York, Michigan, Canada and Europe have low yields this year due to bad weather. And China, the world's biggest apple producer, is keeping more of its fruit at home to feed an expanding middle class.

With the strong market, Washington farmers are going to extremes to get and keep workers. Some are buying commuter vans to transport employees from one orchard to the next. Others are paying up to 15 percent more in wages or giving bonuses for workers who stay the whole season.

Broetje is building its own rental apartments in town and advertising for pickers as far away as Arizona and Ohio. The fastest workers can earn about $1,000 per week.

"The price is good," apple picker Ruiz Olman says, and he likes working here. Olman is earning about $50 more each week compared to last year. And, for him, this orchard is easier to get to from where he lives.

But the work is physically demanding. Jeff Rippon, a manager at nearby Chiawana Orchards, says pickers have to scale tall ladders and carry 40-pound sacks of apples on their chests for at least eight hours a day. He'll hire anyone who wants the work, but he says he has trouble finding enough people. So like many farmers across the country, he ends up relying on migrant workers.

"I've been picking apples since 1965 and I've never seen a white person yet pick more than an hour," Rippon says. "Seriously! By the time you get the paperwork done, they've decided it's too hard to do."

Another problem for farmers is that fewer migrant workers are coming up from Mexico. That's because there's more violence and increased security on the border.

But another problem for farmers is that fewer migrant workers are coming up from Mexico. That's because there's more violence and increased security on the border.

It's too late to fix these problems for this year, but farmers are planning for the future. Some are planting new, shorter trees so picking is easier. Others are developing mobile platforms to help pickers gather apples without ladders. Rippon says one way or another, growers who want to stay in business will have to address the labor shortage.

"A few people will go broke and a few people will make a whole lot of money. And the people that will make the money are the ones who can adapt to change. It's just a fact of life," Rippon says.

For now, apple farmers are racing winter. Workers will stop showing up in the orchards as the colder weather sets in. Many farmers worry that in these next few weeks the worker shortage will only turn more rotten.


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Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Can Riots Be Predicted? Experts Watch Food Prices

A Tunisian protester holds a baguette while taking to riot police in January 2011.

A Tunisian protester holds a baguette while taking to riot police in January 2011.

When French peasants stormed the Bastille on July 14, 1789, they weren't just revolting against the monarchy's policies. They were also hungry.

From the French Revolution to the Arab Spring, high food prices have been cited as a factor behind mass protest movements. But can food prices actually help predict when social unrest is likely to break out?

Yes, say a group of researchers who use mathematical modeling to describe how food prices behave. Earlier this summer, their model had predicted that the U.S. drought would push corn and wheat prices high enough to spark social unrest in other parts of the world.

"Now, of course, we do see this happening," says Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute in Cambridge, Mass. And unless those food prices come down, the researchers warned last week, more waves of riots are coming.

Obviously, there are complex social reasons why people riot. The current protests in the Mideast were set off by outrage over a crude anti-Islam film. Years of government oppression and economic instability led to the Arab Spring uprising. But it's high food prices, Bar-Yam and his colleagues argue, that create "the range of conditions in which the tiniest spark can lead to riots."

Over the past year, the institute has gotten a lot of attention for its accurate predictions of food price behaviors. Last fall, the researchers released a study that showed big spikes in food prices coincided with food riots in 2007-2008 and 2011, including the events of the Arab Spring.

But their model also offers the potential to forecast future social unrest by identifying "a very well-defined threshold [for food prices] above which food riots break out," Bar-Yam tells The Salt.

In fact, Bar-Yam and his colleagues say they submitted their analysis warning of the risks of social unrest to the U.S. government on Dec. 13, 2010. Four days later, Tunisian fruit and vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire an event widely seen as the catalyst for the Arab Spring.

The researchers define the riot danger zone in relation to the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the monthly change in international prices for a basket of cereals, dairy, meat, sugars and oil/fats. Riots become more likely, their model showed, when the index goes above 210. The index has been hovering above that "disruption threshold" since July, pushed upward by the drought in the U.S., the world's biggest exporter of corn and wheat.

"What happened was that food prices went up exactly as predicted," Bar-Yam says.

Wheat is now at $9 per bushel higher than the high of $8.94 hit in February 2011, when the Arab Spring was in full swing. Corn is at $7.56 a bushel, close to the $7.65 highs of 2007-2008 though it spiked well above $8 a bushel this summer. The Mideast is particularly sensitive to wheat prices; it imports most of its wheat, which is a major staple for the region.

While the drought is causing the current spike in food prices, prices have also been on a steady, long-term trajectory upward. So what's behind that trend? NECSI's model has fingered two key suspects: speculation and the conversion of corn to ethanol. (More on that later.) Even without the drought, Bar-Yam says, food prices were headed toward the riot zone by early next year.

The institute's work isn't without critics. Blogging at G-Feed, economist Dave Lobell notes that NECSI's papers aren't peer-reviewed they are simply released publicly. "But in the case of NECSI, I think they have come up with a pretty satisfying solution making testable predictions about the next year," Lobell writes.

And NECSI's research has a prominent fan in Peter Timmer, a professor emeritus at Harvard University and one of the world's leading agricultural economists. The institute consulted Timmer on some of its earlier work, and he joined its faculty this summer.

What the researchers have done, Timmer says, is create "a model that's better than anything my economics colleagues have done to explain food prices. The model really works."


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High Food Prices Forecast More Global Riots Ahead, Researchers Say

A Tunisian protester holds a baguette while taking to riot police in January 2011.

A Tunisian protester holds a baguette while taking to riot police in January 2011.

When French peasants stormed the Bastille on July 14, 1789, they weren't just revolting against the monarchy's policies. They were also hungry.

From the French Revolution to the Arab Spring, high food prices have been cited as a factor behind mass protest movements. But can food prices actually help predict when social unrest is likely break out?

Yes, say a group of researchers who use mathematical modeling to describe how food prices behave. Earlier this summer, their model had predicted that the U.S. drought would push corn and wheat prices high enough to spark social unrest in other parts of the world.

"Now, of course, we do see this happening," says Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Science Institute in Cambridge, Mass. And unless those food prices come down, the researchers warned last week, more waves of riots are coming.

Obviously, there are complex social reasons why people riot. The current protests in the Mideast were set off by outrage over a crude anti-Islam film. Years of government oppression and economic instability led to the Arab Spring uprising. But it's high food prices, Bar-Yam and his colleagues argue, that create "the range of conditions in which the tiniest spark can lead to riots."

Over the last year, the institute has gotten a lot of attention for its accurate predictions of food price behaviors. Last fall, the researchers released a study that showed big spikes in food prices coincided with food riots in 2007-2008 and 2011, including the events of the Arab Spring.

But their model also offers the potential to forecast future social unrest by identifying "a very well-defined threshold [for food prices] above which food riots break out," Bar-Yam tells The Salt.

In fact, Bar-Yam and his colleagues say they submitted their analysis warning of the risks of social unrest to the U.S. government on Dec. 13, 2010. Four days later, Tunisian fruit and vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire an event widely seen as the catalyst for the Arab Spring.

The researchers define the riot danger zone in relation to the U.N.'s FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the monthly change in international prices for a basket of cereals, dairy, meat, sugars and oil/fats. Riots become more likely, their model showed, when the index goes above 210. The index has been hovering above that "disruption threshold" since July, pushed upward by the drought in the U.S. the world's biggest exporter of corn and wheat.

"What happened was that food prices went up exactly as predicted," Bar-Yam says.

Wheat is now at $9 per bushel higher than the high of $8.94 hit in February 2011, when the Arab Spring was in full swing. Corn is at $7.56 a bushel, close to the $7.65 highs of 2007-2008 though it spiked well above $8 a bushel this summer. The Mideast is particularly sensitive to wheat prices it imports most of its wheat, which is a major staple for the region.

While the drought is causing the current spike in food prices, prices have also been on a steady, long-term trajectory upward. So what's behind that trend? NECSI's model has fingered two key suspects: speculation and the conversion of corn to ethanol. (More on that later.) Even without the drought, Bar-Yam says, food prices were headed toward the riot zone by early next year.

The institute's work isn't without critics. Blogging at G-Feed, economist Dave Lobell notes that NECSI's papers aren't peer-reviewed they are simply released publicly. "But in the case of NECSI, I think they have come up with a pretty satisfying solution making testable predictions about the next year," Lobell writes.

And NECSI's research has a prominent fan in Peter Timmer, a professor emeritus at Harvard University and one of the world's leading agricultural economists. The institute consulted Timmer on some of its earlier work, and he joined its faculty this summer.

What the researchers have done, Timmer says, is create "a model that's better than anything my economics colleagues have done to explain food prices. The model really works."


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Monday, October 1, 2012

Nearing Its 50th Birthday, Arby's Gets A 'Fresh' Makeover, New Logo

Quick when you think of Arby's, do you think of seasoned curly fries or turkey sandwiches?

The fast food chain, born in 1964 in roast beef sandwich and sweet-tea loving Ohio, is hoping to have it both ways. This weekend, it launched a new ad campaign focused on its lower calorie, freshly-sliced turkey sandwiches (think competition for the Subway chain) and a sleeker, more modern logo.

"We see ourselves as a sandwich shop, but we don't always get credit for that from the consumer," Andrew Keller, chief executive officer at Crispin Porter & Bogusky, the agency behind the new ad, tells Bloomberg.

And yet Arby's Twitter feed is full of homages to one of the chains' biggest claim to fame its curly fries.

Arby's has just about 3,500 restaurants globally, compared with Subway's 34,000, according to Bloomberg. And the chain's gotten low ranks for its food in a couple of big diner surveys, including this one from Consumer Reports last year. So it was ready to make some changes.

One of the changes was to the logo. While the iconic ten-gallon hat remains, the font that sits on the brim is now smaller and more modern-looking, sporting a deeper shade of red.

Over at the branding blog, Brand New, they're lamenting the change:

"The Arby's giant hat logo is one of the most fun fast food chain logos: oversize and over-Western'd without any excuses. Their classic road signs, sadly less common now, are always a sight to behold. Even what looks like cheesy typography is a very nice, condensed bit of slab serif that filled in the hat properly. The new logo retains the hat shape, along with some unfortunate 3D extrusion, but replaces the typography with some flavorless, sans serif with a lowercase 'a' and the sharpest, biggest (and is that shiniest?) apostrophe that no logo ever needed."

As part of its makeover efforts, Arby's plans to add as many as 12 new products this year, Chief Marketing Officer Russ Klein says. The chain introduced hot turkey sandwiches this month and plans to branch out widely, perhaps to a peppermint milk shake, a molten lava cake and miniature sandwiches, he tells Bloomberg.

Also, to attract new customers, the company is planning a $12 million renovation of some of its restaurants by the end of the year, Klein says.

The new Arby's logo is a sleeker and more modern version of the old one, but not everyone's a fan.

The new Arby's logo is a sleeker and more modern version of the old one, but not everyone's a fan.

Arby's is far from alone in giving itself a middle-aged makeover. As MSNBC reports, times are changing for the fast food business as the foodservice market is expected to grow slowly in the coming years. Plus the Chipotle and Subway chains are encroaching on the traditional fast food outlets' territory with fresher, healthier food options.

The old logo.

The old logo.

McDonald's is touting real fruit smoothies, Burger King is advertising fresh vegetables, and Wendy's is promoting "natural lemonade" as part of their efforts to jump on the "freshness" brand wagon, a key buzzword in restaurants for the last decade, according to Restaurant News.

"It's going to be a real battle for market share," Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst, tells MSNBC.


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'Old-School' Food Shopping Feels New As U.S. Cities Revive Public Markets

  • Cleveland Ohio's West Side Market began in 1840 as an open air market on land donated by Josiah Barber and Richard Lord, who were two of the first property owners and mayors of the city's oldest neighborhood. The market was renovated in 2004.
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    Cleveland Ohio's West Side Market began in 1840 as an open air market on land donated by Josiah Barber and Richard Lord, who were two of the first property owners and mayors of the city's oldest neighborhood. The market was renovated in 2004.
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    Courtesy of the Project for Public Spaces
  • Today, the Cleveland West Side Market is a space for 100 vendors opportunities to sell and connect with the local community and tourists.
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    Today, the Cleveland West Side Market is a space for 100 vendors opportunities to sell and connect with the local community and tourists.
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    Courtesy of the Project for Public Spaces
  • Lexington Market in Baltimore, Md., is more than 200 years old. General John Eager Howard, who fought in the American Revolution, donated the land for the market to the city.
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    Lexington Market in Baltimore, Md., is more than 200 years old. General John Eager Howard, who fought in the American Revolution, donated the land for the market to the city.
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    Lexington Market
  • After a fire destroyed the old Lexington Market in Baltimore 1949, the city rebuilt it. Today, the market houses 140 merchants and developers are preparing it for another major renovation.
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    After a fire destroyed the old Lexington Market in Baltimore 1949, the city rebuilt it. Today, the market houses 140 merchants and developers are preparing it for another major renovation.
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    Courtesy of the Project for Public Spaces
  • Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. was completed in 1873 and designed by German-born architect Adolf Cluss.
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    Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. was completed in 1873 and designed by German-born architect Adolf Cluss.
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    Courtesy of the Project for Public Spaces
  • The Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. is 137 years old and attracts thousands of shoppers and vendors, rain or shine.
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    The Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. is 137 years old and attracts thousands of shoppers and vendors, rain or shine.
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    Project for Public Spaces
  • Ivy Maynor is a vendor inside Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. Public markets support local businesspeople who otherwise could be outsold by corporate markets and warehouse establishments.
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    Ivy Maynor is a vendor inside Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. Public markets support local businesspeople who otherwise could be outsold by corporate markets and warehouse establishments.
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    Karen Castillo Farfn/NPR
  • Merchants bring fruits and homemade jellies and jams from local establishments to Eastern Market to provide customers with fresh options and personal service.
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    Merchants bring fruits and homemade jellies and jams from local establishments to Eastern Market to provide customers with fresh options and personal service.
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    Karen Castillo Farfn/NPR
  • Oxbow Public Market in Napa, Calif., opened in 2007 and was designed to blend in with the surrounding architecture.
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    Oxbow Public Market in Napa, Calif., opened in 2007 and was designed to blend in with the surrounding architecture.
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    Courtesy of the Project for Public Spaces

1 of 9

View slideshow i

One hundred years ago, before Walmart and Whole Foods and Albertson's and Kroger, grocery shopping was a very different experience.

Many American city dwellers flocked to the indoor public markets huge, high-ceilinged halls lined with vendors hawking everything from fresh fruit and vegetables to full-service meat and fish counters.

Some were centrally located markets, like Eastern Market in Washington, D.C. or West Side Market in Cleveland. Seattle's Pike Place Market, now 105-years-old, is still going strong. But smaller neighborhood public markets also thrived, as did roadside stands in the summer.

Over time, though, the brightly lit supermarket, with aisles of already packaged goods, emerged as a more convenient option for mid-century America's harried housewives. And in many cities, the old public markets were demolished.

But now there's a reversal, as urbanites and developers keen on fresh food and a more personable shopping experience rediscover the public markets and revive them. As we've reported, farmers markets are proliferating with impressive speed, and the old indoor markets are getting facelifts.

In Washington, D.C., the old Centre Market reopened this month as Union Market, featuring high-end vendors selling everything from homemade kimchee to smoked fish. In some towns, like Napa, Calif., are building indoor public markets from scratch.

"What you can see is that we're starting to move back to the market city model," says Brendan Crain, a spokesman for the Project for Public Spaces, which this month hosted the 8th International Public Markets Conference in Cleveland. "Supermarkets are not going away, but there's a lot more variety now."

Have a look at the slideshow for glimpse of public markets, then and now.


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